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Winter Caches Are Great

Thanks Supply Box Winter Cache Con Sev Tom Devteam

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13 replies to this topic

#1
Noob

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I feel these supply boxes have an excellent balance of value for players. The contents and the cost are practically perfect IMO.

 

Spot on.

 

 

 

Edit 2: As long as the odds for all the prizes are equal, then I stand by my original post.


Edited by Noob, 13 January 2015 - 12:50 AM.

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#2
Harpago

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I completely disagree.

 

For a 100 fuel for a key I think they are a very sloppy return. 

 

They contain: 

 

Ammo x50

Ammo x100

Ammo x500

Book: Boost your Experience

Fuel 100

Fuel 300

And a hat

 

The only thing in that box to make the gamble worth investing in is a 300 fuel return for the 100 you spent buying the key. Statistically, you aren't going to get that 300 fuel most of the time. Boxes don't work like that.

 

Everything else in that box is completely pointless.

 

Ammo? Who on earth needs ammo for the 100 fuel for the key? You either scavenge the stuff in a few missions, or craft the stuff much cheaper.

 

The book is pointless. I've never used an XP bonus that low when i've been playing for XP, combat books are higher, and you don't sacrifice the book slot for the other general book which is essential doing missions in this game, the shiny. A +100% one hour XP book only costs 150 fuel in the store. But you spent 100 fuel opening a box to find a one hour +15%. Great.

 

The hats in them are completely unhelpful, unless perhaps you are starting out in the game and haven't really got much of a hat collection.

 

So i'll be passing on the Winter Caches and deleting them. 

 


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#3
DJfriede

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For a 100 fuel for a key I think they are a very sloppy return. 

The only thing in that box to make the gamble worth investing in is a 300 fuel return for the 100 you spent buying the key. Statistically, you aren't going to get that 300 fuel most of the time. Boxes don't work like that.

 

Everything else in that box is completely pointless.

 

Sounds like 90% of the boxes in this game. :) I'll pass, too.


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#4
Noob

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The box loses about 30 fuel if you solely base it off the fuel prizes. But that doesn't include the premium clothing chances along with the other very minor prizes like ammo which make the return pretty decent enough to gamble on, while the game still maintains its 'house edge'. The box appeals to most kinds of players, particularly the ones who would open the box, and those who enjoy premium clothing. In effect, the box doesn't appear like a pure 'gamble', but for something fun, and the returns are decent enough so as to not appear a ripoff. Some players won't do all the 'value' calculations to determine the ROI for a cache. Others will value the prizes differently.

If you think the current boxes are terrible, what would you make the contents and the cost of the box/key (from ConArtist's perspective). ? </p>

Edited by Noob, 12 January 2015 - 06:48 PM.

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#5
Zingman

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Let's also assume that each one of the prizes is equally likely of being chosen. Assume the #8 prize 'very rare item' OR 'premium clothing' is 50/50, so that each is a 1/16 chance.

 

That's a very very bad assumption.  The odds of getting each item in the box are not equal.

 

A study of earlier boxes demonstrated that the cheapest items are far more common than the more "expensive" ones, with the rarest item of the seven listed items having less than a five percent chance of showing up.


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#6
Harpago

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The box loses about 30 fuel if you solely base it off the fuel prizes. But that doesn't include the premium clothing chances along with the other very minor prizes like ammo which make the return pretty decent enough to gamble on, while the game still maintains its 'house edge'. The box appeals to most kinds of players, particularly the ones who would open the box, and those who enjoy premium clothing. In effect, the box doesn't appear like a pure 'gamble', but for something fun, and the returns are decent enough so as to not appear a ripoff. All in all, it's not a ripoff like, say, a carnival game with a stuffed animal as a prize.

 

I would fall short of using the expression 'rip off,' but what's in them is basically pointless 'to most kinds of players,' and for that reason is unappealing.  500 ammo costs 15 fuel to craft as another example of why the boxes are such a bad gamble. 


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#7
Noob

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That's a very very bad assumption.  The odds of getting each item in the box are not equal.

 

A study of earlier boxes demonstrated that the cheapest items are far more common than the more "expensive" ones, with the rarest item of the seven listed items having less than a five percent chance of showing up.

 

I decided to delete that entire part of the post before anyone read it because it sounded like too much. But I guess I didn't delete it quick enough. Thanks for this link!

 

It's only one account of someone opening the boxes, and variance plays a huge part, but it does beg the question if it is true for every box that the top prizes are much less likely? If so, then I completely take back what I said about these caches. Is there any more evidence to suggest this?

 

And if this is true, that's despicably devious IMO and I am absolutely against it. Making the the boxes rigged like a slot machine in that manner is disgusting to me.


Edited by Noob, 12 January 2015 - 07:09 PM.

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#8
T_J

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That study is near spot on. Since that post, I have been mindful of my booty from boxes, and I have had nearly the same results.


Edited by T_J, 13 January 2015 - 06:58 AM.

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#9
Con

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They're a gamble for the clothing item or a 2 to 1 return on fuel. Take em or leave em. Remember people, you have a choice :)

 

Also, please remember that not everything is for you.



#10
Noob

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They're a gamble for the clothing item or a 2 to 1 return on fuel. Take em or leave em. Remember people, you have a choice :)

 

Also, please remember that not everything is for you.

 

Also, please remember that not everything is for you.'

 

 

That's the important point here. People value things differently than others. Making the boxes fun with the clothing and a decent enough return with the fuel makes it like paying a minor amount of fuel for a piece of clothing, sort of like spending money in a casino, you get the chance to win and you have fun with the 'experience' either way. In a casino it's free drinks, here it's clothing and a couple other tiny items.

 

Again, some people could see it that way. It depends on how people value the premium clothing. There's no real right or wrong way to value premium clothing. Because, some people value little souvenirs for their visits to other nations; not everyone looks at it in terms of pure fuel/real money value. They're fun. This box appeals to the right players who'll invest in opening the box.

 

The only issue I have is if the odds are not reflective of what they seem. If each prize doesn't have an equal chance of occurring, then that's pretty despicable IMO. Personally, I wouldn't do that, and I don't think Con would do that either. I don't see the point since the 'house' wins amount anyways. But, no clear answer was given.

 

From Con's perspective, that's a win-win and the contents of the box yield a fine return and a fun experience.


Edited by Noob, 13 January 2015 - 01:04 AM.

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#11
LLiquid

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Boxes have always been a gamble and the chance of getting each item has always decreased as you look down the list of potential prizes.

 

In 2 years of playig the game, I have toyed ith less than 10 boxes and some of those were January 2012 when potential prizes included The Battle Axe, Ash's Left hand and Golden AK.

 

Beyond that, the only ones that have appealed to me personallly has been Halloween boxes that have a chance for an item AND a boost/effect


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#12
Lana Woo

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You know? I've always thought that it's better when the person who buys a key and the person who uses that key are not the same.

The fuel reward is senseless when you buy keys to open boxes, but it makes more sense when you trade for them.

 

For example, I'm saving fuel to buy something (like a UCS 50%). To get 1,600 fuel I would need to play for a few months (no DMU), but if I have a lot of low-grade unis, or other stuff that I can trade, and I sell them for keys and use those keys to open boxes, every fuel reward would be a gain (except for the trade cost, of course).

For me, it's a way to turn unwanted unis and stuff into fuel or clothing; not as effective as I wish it was, but something something work hard for your stuff.

In exchange, keys give people with bad luck a way to get unis, thus balancing the game [citation needed].

 

 

TL,DR: Don't buy keys. trade for them.


Edited by Lana Woo, 10 February 2015 - 07:41 PM.

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#13
Prpich25

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You know? I've always thought that it's better when the person who buys a key and the person who uses that key are not the same.

The fuel reward is senseless when you buy keys to open boxes, but it makes more sense when you trade for them.

 

For example, I'm saving fuel to buy something (like a UCS 50%). To get 1,600 fuel I would need to play for a few months (no DMU), but if I have a lot of low-grade unis, or other stuff that I can trade, and I sell them for keys and use those keys to open boxes, every fuel reward would be a gain (except for the trade cost, of course).

For me, it's a way to turn unwanted unis and stuff into fuel or clothing; not as effective as I wish it was, but something something work hard for your stuff.

In exchange, keys give people with bad luck a way to get unis, thus balancing the game [citation needed].

 

 

TL,DR: Don't buy keys. trade for them.

 

That would be something if a player could not trade for a UCS @ 50%, or any shop item for that matter. Any boxed open that didn't break even @ 150 fuel, would be a loss. Any key has more value in trade, then is does for its purpose of opening a box. It would take you way longer, with more of a waste in uni trades, and using those keys, to get that book, following your method.

 

That's assuming your gonna get a break even in fuel using those keys. That USC book, fair trade 11 keys, and they are traded at that price as well, its what i charge.

 

Trading for keys, and using your own fuel to buy keys, is more cost effective, and less time consuming. With no risk for loss. Is there a chance you might might hit the big fuel payouts, yeah sure, there's also a chance i'll fart rainbows after eating Skittels. lol But the probability is very low. 

 

Not to mention "Don't buy keys. trade for them.", The whole key economy is based off players burning fuel to get keys from the store. Every key you have was bought from the store. With exception to bounty box's popping out a key now and then, which is rare. 


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#14
Lana Woo

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That would be something if a player could not trade for a UCS @ 50%, or any shop item for that matter. Any boxed open that didn't break even @ 150 fuel, would be a loss. Any key has more value in trade, then is does for its purpose of opening a box. It would take you way longer, with more of a waste in uni trades, and using those keys, to get that book, following your method.

 

You're right, I hadn't considered that it's easier to trade it for keys. In my case, opening boxes is even less effective than i thought.

Maybe i should have used as examples fuel-wasting-only activities, like crafting/upgrading or the inventory upgrade.

 

Not to mention "Don't buy keys. trade for them.", The whole key economy is based off players burning fuel to get keys from the store. Every key you have was bought from the store. With exception to bounty box's popping out a key now and then, which is rare. 

 

That "don't buy keys..." stuff was for the player who use them to increase his/her fuel, because the point is to not burn your own fuel. Of course, if you want to buy stuff like unis or clothing you should absolutely use your fuel to buy keys. What you should never do is to buy keys with fuel to open boxes, because that would be a loss.


Edited by Lana Woo, 12 February 2015 - 10:48 PM.

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