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odds fuel supply boxes upgrade tokens upgrading

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#1
NightEagle

NightEagle
  • 298 posts

*
POPULAR

--Final Update 28/09/2015--

 

No one knows the odds of the supply boxes, but I like to get a better idea of these odds by keeping empirical data. I find this very useful for determining what's the cheapest 'solution' when I'm trading or looking to upgrade a unique. As with any data, the bigger the sample size, the more accurate the results are and that's why I created this topic. I'll share the data I gather from opening boxes and hopefully I'll get some more data from other interested players that I'll add to mine so that we can get more accurate results.

 

The data I gather is mostly about the fuel average per box, but there are of course other valuable items/boosts in these boxes.

 

1) Herc boxes

88T94Mg.png

 

2) Premium boxes

8nuqRSs.png

 

3) Winter caches + Bounty boxes (before update) + War boxes + Raid haul

fpZL61C.png

 

4) Crafting

kIDYU1I.png

 

P.S. I play on the AG/FB server and my player name is NightEagle, in case you want to share your results.


Edited by NightEagle, 28 September 2015 - 03:34 PM.

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#2
treemaster

treemaster
  • 121 posts

Can we start gathering data for chances of getting the token from the lv 3 war boxes too ?  ... right now I am 1 for 4


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#3
NightEagle

NightEagle
  • 298 posts

Can we start gathering data for chances of getting the token from the lv 3 war boxes too ?  ... right now I am 1 for 4

 

Good idea :) I'll add it to the list


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#4
Scrub McLordington LXIX

Scrub McLordington LXIX
  • 1,366 posts

May i suggest using google drive, and allowing certain people to co-edit?


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#5
Sandunes

Sandunes
  • 44 posts

I opened 20 Premium Supply Boxes a couple weeks back and kept track.

 

4,500 fuel total - 225 fuel per box average - 15/20 boxes gave a fuel reward

5 masks

 

Video documented for your perusal.   FFWD to 14:00 for overview.

 

Also tried to quantify buffs, and... failed miserably.

 


Edited by Sandunes, 07 April 2015 - 08:31 AM.

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#6
NightEagle

NightEagle
  • 298 posts

May i suggest using google drive, and allowing certain people to co-edit?

 

I thought about it, but I'm not sure how effective it would be to just let a few people co-edit. If I know them, then they can just tell me their results in-game. And allowing everyone to edit will just become a mess I fear...

 

I opened 20 Premium Supply Boxes a couple weeks back and kept track.

 

4,500 fuel total - 225 fuel per box average - 15/20 boxes gave a fuel reward

5 masks

 

Video documented for your perusal.   FFWD to 14:00 for overview.

 

Also tried to quantify buffs, and... failed miserably.

 

Thanks a lot for this :) I added them to my data

 

The herc boxes data is updated as well


Edited by NightEagle, 07 April 2015 - 02:11 PM.

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#7
T_J

T_J
  • 481 posts

Oh no... I wish I would have seen this a few hours ago. I popped open like 30-40 prem boxes today. I'll keep this in mind down the line.


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#8
T_J

T_J
  • 481 posts

Just opened nine prem boxes.

200

Battle mask

200

Ghoul

200

200

Skin

300

Moto red


Edited by T_J, 09 April 2015 - 04:03 PM.

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#9
T_J

T_J
  • 481 posts

More prem boxes

200

200

200

200

500

300

Moto Red

 

Plus two war boxes level 3

150+50 with a fuel bonus

150+50 with a loot bonus


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#10
NightEagle

NightEagle
  • 298 posts

Thanks T_J, very helpful, will add them to my data :)


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#11
Scrub McLordington LXIX

Scrub McLordington LXIX
  • 1,366 posts

Is this just about Box Data?

 

If not, i made some Upgrading/Crafting cost formulas for you to add :)

(I will also add a calculator for these soon, so people can calculate how much they use for upgrading a certain item when crafting bonuses are involved)

 

Note: Final crafting cost is rounded down, so it may vary slightly.

 

Crafting Costs     (BASE = Weapon Level)

Poor:

N/A (Not Craftable)

Common:

BASE x 0.500 (100%)

Good:

BASE x 0.625 (125%)

Superior:

BASE x 1.250 (250%)

Rare:

N/A (Not Craftable)

Elite:

BASE x 1.750 (350%)

Unique:

N/A (Not Craftable)

Infamous:

N/A (Item Specific)

Premium:

N/A (Item Specific)

 

Upgrading Costs (BASE = Weapon Level)

Poor:

BASE x 0.750 (75%)

Common:

BASE x 1.000 (100%)

Good:

BASE x 2.000 (200%)

Superior:

BASE x 5.000 (500%)

Rare:

BASE x 25.00 (2500%)

Elite:

BASE x 7.500 (750%)

Unique:

BASE x 50.00 (5000%)

Infamous

N/A (Not Upgradeable)

Premium

BASE x 10.00 (1000%)


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#12
Zingman

Zingman
  • 3,173 posts

-snip-

 

Already on the Wiki


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#13
Scrub McLordington LXIX

Scrub McLordington LXIX
  • 1,366 posts

Already on the Wiki

 

It didn't have the Compared to normal price percentages and the infamous quality, so i added those directly after i added them here.


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#14
NorHawk

NorHawk
  • 83 posts

Eagle :)

 

Opened 3 prem boxes :

 

200 fuel

Combat helmet Urban

Mask Ninja Turtles

 

Chris


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#15
gansai

gansai
  • 166 posts

open the 2 new premium box got

1 white version of combat helmet black which were from the unknown item (Ammo Boost)

1 mask which were clothing #1 (Loot Boost)


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#16
Glycolysis

Glycolysis
  • 117 posts

Interesting idea.

 

Though, I would be careful.  Having everyone post their observations could allow for bias to come in.  After all, a person who got garbage and/or nothing special from her boxes is probably less likely to post to this thread than someone who had an incredibly lucky streak and wants to show her luck.  

 

I am not insinuating that everyone here is lucky and is trying to show off.  It simply is that if you want a sample that is representative of the population (the sample space and respective probabilities of the possibilities in the sample space), having random people posting their statistics may cause a conclusion that would be indicative of a more favorable set of outcomes than the actual set of outcomes. 

 

There is not really much to solve this unless you had a group of people keep a list of all the boxes they opened, with no exceptions.  


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#17
NightEagle

NightEagle
  • 298 posts

Interesting idea.

 

Though, I would be careful.  Having everyone post their observations could allow for bias to come in.  After all, a person who got garbage and/or nothing special from her boxes is probably less likely to post to this thread than someone who had an incredibly lucky streak and wants to show her luck.  

 

I am not insinuating that everyone here is lucky and is trying to show off.  It simply is that if you want a sample that is representative of the population (the sample space and respective probabilities of the possibilities in the sample space), having random people posting their statistics may cause a conclusion that would be indicative of a more favorable set of outcomes than the actual set of outcomes. 

 

There is not really much to solve this unless you had a group of people keep a list of all the boxes they opened, with no exceptions.  

 

Most data that I gather is from myself or players that I know in game (in my alliance for example) and they give me all their data, not just if they're lucky. I do realize there might be some inaccurate results, but this was the best way to reach more players and to increase the sample size (cuz it's still pretty low atm)...

 

Btw, another update is coming soon once I added the latest data


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#18
NorHawk

NorHawk
  • 83 posts

Eagle

 

3 new prem boxes opened tonight

 

1 x 200 fuel

2 x 500 fuel

 

Very happy with prem boxes, as i always seems to get a lot of fuel


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#19
Hatchford

Hatchford
  • 920 posts

not less then a week ago I opened 26 HERC boxes for 2775 fuel. should have another batch of 20-30 boxes in the next couple days

 

just did another run, 31 HERC boxes 2250 fuel.

 

another run, 37 HERC boxes for 2100 :'( .... it keeps declining.... 10 winters as well for only 100.....  :,( ... very bad day for boxes....

 

another 16 just got me 1200 fuel...

 

another 19 for 1275 fuel.

 

another 16 for 1650 fuel


Edited by Hatchford, 09 May 2015 - 03:09 PM.

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#20
A Real Renegade

A Real Renegade
  • 493 posts

12 lvl 03 boxes - all 08-19

3x 300 fuel

1x 150 fuel

1x 75 fuel

2x Blue Tokens

1x Oooh Shiny 10%

2x UCS 15

2x Peak Oil 25% temp


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